2018 First round mock draft

That wonderful time is upon us. In less than 48 hours, the 2018 NFL Draft will commence. I’ll write a little addendum article to the mock draft where I’ll deal with a draft-related issue in depth, but this one is the mock and only the mock. So here we go.

  1. Cleveland Browns: Sam Darnold, Quarterback, USC: There has been buzz surrounding Wyoming’s Josh Allen and Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield at this spot, but I don’t buy it. I think Darnold is (wrongly) seen as the sure thing in this draft at quarterback, and Cleveland needs a sure thing here. One plus for Darnold: I think his learning curve is being underestimated by scouts, so spending his rookie year behind Tyrod Taylor would help.
  2. New York Giants: Bradley Chubb, Defensive End, North Carolina State: I think the Giants take a mighty long look at both Saquon Barkley and a quarterback here, but then set their mind on Chubb, the draft’s best and most polished pass rusher. Olivier Vernon is a really nice player whom the Giants are paying a king’s ransom, but he’s best suited to being a team’s second best pass rusher, and Chubb’s arrival means this happens. Dealing Jason Pierre-Paul to the Bucs accentuates the need for this pick, and Chubb is very much worth it.
  3. New York JetsBaker Mayfield, Quarterback, Oklahoma: It comes down to one belief on my part: the Jets are going to screw this up. I think Mayfield is a ludicrous pick here. I know he has a “Noo Yaawk” kind of mentality, but I see Mayfield’s athletic skills, whether it’s size, arm strength or mobility, as being just good enough to crush it in college, especially in the Big XII where many programs’ defences are actually an abstract concept, but not in the NFL. Good for the Jets if I’m wrong.
  4. Cleveland BrownsSaquon Barkley, Running Back, Penn State: Even the Browns can’t mess this up. Barkley is the best player in the draft. He’s the latest in the line of spectacular prospects at his position in the last few years at the top of the draft, and the Browns have a need for his dynamic skill. Don’t overthink this, Cleveland! I know you got this… Maybe…
  5. Denver Broncos: Josh Rosen, Quarterback, UCLA: This pick is key, and its fate depends on one question: does Denver still think Paxton Lynch can make it? Sure, he was always going to have a steep learning curve, coming from the bubble screen heaven that is Memphis’ offence, but what’s he shown you in two years? Case Keenum is there, but there’s no way he’s a long-term option (it’s likely he was their backup plan after they whiffed on Kirk Cousins in free agency), and this QB class is too strong at the top to pass on a QB unless you’re just about certain Lynch can pull through. If they still hold out hope for him, the Broncos become a prime candidate to trade down a few spots and let a team desperate for a quarterback grab one here. I don’t see it happening. Not since Aaron Rodgers has a first-round quarterback been given more than two years before being named the starter, but Rodgers was backing up Brett Favre, whereas Lynch couldn’t get on the field despite starter Trevor Simian having a really rough season last year. Hell, even “The Heist” himself, Brock Osweiler, got playing time ahead of Lynch last year! You know what, screw this, I just talked myself into Rosen for Denver. So will John Elway.
  6. Buffalo Bills (trade with Indianapolis): Josh Allen, Quarterback, Wyoming: Every member of the Buffalo top brass would be willing to sell their family into slavery in exchange for a top quarterback at this point. With Allen still on the board, the Bills package their two first rounders to go get him. I think it’s a fairly terrible plan. Unless Kelvin Benjamin shapes up, Buffalo has an underwhelming receiving corps and has dealt Tyrod Taylor to Cleveland just before welcoming the top 4’s least pro-ready quarterback. Allen has obvious tools, but he has significant red flags in his game. So much of a quarterback’s fate is dictated by circumstance and, in this regard, I’m not sure Allen could do much worse than Buffalo.
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Safety, Alabama: Here’s what I want to answer: who cares? This offseason, the Bucs decided that going nowhere as a franchise was fun as they retained Dirk Koetter, one of the league’s three worst head coaches, which dooms them to anonymity once again in the otherwise strong NFC South. Still, Fitzpatrick is a tremendous player who fills a huge need and instantly becomes the best player in their secondary.
  8. Miami Dolphins (Trade with Chicago): Denzel Ward, Cornerback, Ohio State: In their roster management, the Dolphins are usually the wrong kind of aggressive, although in this case, it pays off. Ward is clearly a steal at this point, and helps bring star power at a position where the team could really use it.
  9. San Francisco 49ers: Roquan Smith, Linebacker, Georgia: There’s no weapon for Jimmy Garoppolo worth selecting here, so the 49ers deal with another problem, namely grabbing a guy who has the ability to either play next to or replace ticking time bomb Reuben Foster. Virginia Tech’s Tremaine Edmunds is ranked higher than Smith by most draft analysts (which boggles my frickin’ mind), but Smith is more experienced and a proven character guy on a National Championship finalist.
  10. Oakland Raiders: Tremaine Edmunds, Linebacker, Virginia Tech: The Raiders will gladly take Edmunds to help with their lack of athleticism at inside linebacker. Edmunds is very young and, in my opinion, a bit overrated at this point, but his athletic upside is considerable and undeniable, so this makes tons of sense for the Raiders.
  11. Chicago Bears (Trade with Miami)Derwin James, Safety, Florida State: This is a really nice tool for creative DC Vic Fangio to play around with. James is terrific in coverage, physical against the run and can (I kid you not, I’m an FSU fan, I watched him) rush the passer. OK, fine, don’t believe me? Watch him Reggie White the Florida right tackle at 9:53. https://youtu.be/ByWss9Wl9S4?t=9m53s He instantly becomes a mainstay on that Bears defence.
  12. Indianapolis Colts (Trade with Buffalo): Quentin Nelson, Guard, Notre Dame: After trading down, the Colts can’t believe their luck. The best college guard in years drops to them at 12 after they trade down. Andrew Luck is smiling ear-to-ear after this pick, and the Colts’ running game is improved by this pick as well.
  13. Washington Deadskins: Vita Vea, Defensive tackle, Washington: The nose tackle position in Washington is currently being shared by a committee of first-round busts. Vea brings tremendous size and power along with deceptive athleticism to the position. A slam-dunk pick here.
  14. Green Bay Packers: I imagine the war room deliberation in Green Bay might go a little something like this… Packers GM: “So, uh, guys, we’ve got Aaron Rodgers coming out publicly and saying he wasn’t thrilled that we cut Jordy Nelson without talking to him. This could be trouble…” Other Packers’ staffer: “Trouble?! Try a PR shitstorm and a disaster! We’ve got to do something about this…” Packers GM: “We did sign Jimmy Graham. I mean…” Packers staffer: “Tremendous, and I’ve just seen this trailer for this movie called “Suicide Squad.” I think it’s going to be really good! Oh, wait… What year is this again?” Packers GM: “Your sarcasm is getting us nowhere, Bob.” (Sighs) “Well… I find this Calvin Ridley guy is pretty good.” Packers’ staffer: “Agreed. I say we take him.” Packers GM: “Hey, I make the decisions around here! Now, where was I? Right, Calvin Ridley! Everybody good with us taking him?” The entire room nods vigourously. The pick: Calvin Ridley, Wide receiver, Alabama
  15. Baltimore Ravens (Trade with Arizona): Marcus Davenport, Edge Rusher, UTSA: Arizona suckers Baltimore into coming up one spot to secure Davenport under the threat that teams in need of an edge rusher, such as Seattle, might come up because they supposedly like Davenport much better than Harold Landry. Davenport is more of a developmental guy than his draft status suggests, but his physical tools are impressive, and he would get to learn a thing or two from Terrell Suggs before no.55 calls it a career.
  16. Arizona Cardinals (Trade with Baltimore): DJ Moore, Wide receiver, Maryland: I think the media are just starting to get wind of how much teams like Moore, a complete receiver stuck in the anonymous wasteland that is Maryland’s passing attack. His all-around skills are a great addition to a receiving corps whose best asset is still the immortal Larry Fitzgerald. As great as Fitz is, the Cards really need to work on his succession now.
  17. Los Angeles Chargers: Mike McGlinchey, Offensive tackle, Notre Dame: The Chargers did some pretty serious work on their interior offensive line. This time they get an improvement over average-at-best starting right tackle Joe Barksdale. McGlinchey is the antithesis of a flashy pick, but it’s a solid get for the Chargers, and there is no overprotecting an immobile quarterback in his mid-30s like Philip Rivers.
  18. Seattle Seahawks: Mike Hughes, Cornerback, UCF: The Legion of Boom is close to dismantled, and the departure of Richard Sherman leaves a huge void. Hughes won’t talk like Sherman, he probably won’t play like peak-Sherman, but he’ll do well and his physicality fits how Seattle likes their cornerbacks to play.
  19. Dallas Cowboys: Da’Ron Payne, Defensive tackle, Alabama: The Cowboys need a replacement for Dez Bryant, but they like no one enough to draft one here. Therefore, they give their run defence a serious shot in the arm by grabbing Payne, who instantly step into the nose tackle spot on their defensive line.
  20. Detroit Lions: Harold Landry, Defensive end, Boston College: Beyond Ziggy Ansah, the Lions have nothing in terms of pass rush, and even Ansah is a streaky player, which means the Lions of long spells of putting next to no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Landry fixes that problem, as his technique, motor and consistency are a huge addition for the Lions.
  21. Cincinnati BengalsWill Hernandez, Guard, UTEP: You can almost always count on the Bengals to make the boring move except, in this case, it makes sense. Their interior line was woeful last year, and Hernandez is one of many terrific, physical interior linemen with first-round grades. This is seventh heaven for Marvin Lewis.
  22. Indianapolis Colts (Trade with Buffalo): Jaire Alexander, Cornerback, Louisville: Grades seem all over the place on Alexander, and the Colts need cornerback help. Ergo, they grab Alexander to pair up with Malik Hooker and give themselves half a good secondary.
  23. New England Patriots: Josh Jackson, Cornerback, Iowa: After losing Malcolm Butler, the Patriots need help at cornerback, and they take advantage of a draft pool that features several mid teen-late 20s corners. Jackson is a Pats kind of guy, smart and tough. A good fit for the Pats here.
  24. Carolina Panthers: Derrius Guice, Running Back, LSU:  After losing Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers need a power element to their running game to go along with the all-purpose skills of the speedier Christian McCaffrey. Guice fits the bill as a power back with just enough of a burst to be an occasional big-play threat. He’ll remind Panthers’ fans of Stewart, but he’s less injury-prone.
  25. Tennessee Titans: James Daniels, Centre, Iowa: Despite hype from 2016, the interior of Tennessee’s offensive line disappointed last season, and an upgrade could be beneficial. The drafting of Daniels would allow current starting centre Ben Jones to slide into (most likely) Quinton Spain’s left guard spot. Overall, it’s a net win for Tennessee, who will finally ditch that ridiculous expression “exotic smashmouth” in name, but not in playing style.
  26. New York Giants (Trade with Atlanta)Kolton Miller, Offensive tackle, UCLA: The Giants need pass protection in the worst way, and they trade back into the first round, in front of the Patriots, to grab Miller, who fits the physical model established by GM Dave Gettleman in Carolina. Besides, the Giants really, really need a left tackle to replace the slow-footed Ereck Flowers, who’s been getting Eli Manning killed the last few years.
  27. New Orleans Saints: Hayden Hurst, Tight end, South Carolina: The Saints haven’t had their customary production from the tight end position since they traded Jimmy Graham, and now a pretty loaded offence gets another weapon. Drew Brees is a happy man.
  28. Pittsburgh SteelersLeighton Vander Esch, Linebacker, Boise State: What happened to Ryan Shazier last season was an absolute shame, and it forces Pittsburgh to shop for an insurance policy in case he can never return or be the player he was if he does. Vander Esch is a big, fast, rangy player who’s a terrific fit to play inside in Pittsburgh’s 3-4.
  29. Jacksonville Jaguars: Lamar Jackson, Quarterback, Louisville: So let’s not kid ourselves and think Blake Bortles, despite his improvement last year, is the answer. This leads the Jags to make one of the draft’s most intriguing picks with the polarizing Jackson, a multidimensional quarterback who will add additional spotlight on the suddenly trendy Jags.
  30. Minnesota Vikings: Rashaan Evans, Linebacker, Alabama: This Vikings team is looking pretty loaded, and they add athleticism at the Will linebacker position by replacing incumbent starter Ben Gedeon with Evans, a smart, tough typical Alabama product at the position.
  31. New England Patriots: Connor Williams, Offensive tackle, Texas: With Nate Solder’s departure, the team needs an athletic left tackle to keep Tom Brady upright on the rare occasions when he keeps the ball longer than 1.3 seconds. Williams is not the heaviest player, but he’s a smooth mover who fits what the Pats are looking for.
  32. Philadelphia Eagles: Sony Michel, Running Back, Georgia: The Eagles are so loaded this is a luxury pick, but it gives the Eagles improved depth at the position, which they need, and Michel is the quintessential modern all-purpose back that every team needs in 2018.
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NFL Draft: Sending the Bears an email they don’t want to read

Yesterday gave a us a wild first round. This was yet another night that makes me ponder just how stupid it is for us to try to predict trades when we do mock drafts. The ones that end up happening are never the ones we expect and, yesterday, we didn’t have to wait long before the first crazy trade.

Anyone who knows me is well aware that I love picking apart bad drafting and bad free agent signings. Therefore, I along with most of the NFL audience, was taken off guard when the Bears gave up several picks to swap selections with the 49ers in order to draft this guy:

Mitch Trubisky

So, while I still wanted to write some form of recap, I didn’t want to do the standard winners/losers column. So I’m going to keep it short and send the Chicago Bears an email they really don’t want to read

To: Bears GM Ryan Pace and HC John Fox. 

From: Alexandre Turp

Hey guys, far be it from me to add to the shitstorm you’ve been taking from local and national media for giving up all these picks to grab Mitch Trubisky, but I’m afraid I must. So here’s my question: On a scale of one to ‘what-the-fuck-have-we-done,’ how badly are you freaking out that there are, if you really look at it, eerie similarities between your new QB and Blaine Gabbert?

Now, Mr. Pace, I know you’re sitting there thinking, “What the hell?! Trubisky’s gonna be so much better than that stiff!!” Hear me out.

Nobody starts off wanting to draft the kind of quarterback Gabbert has become, but hindsight is 20/20. We only hate this comparison because we now KNOW what Gabbert is at the NFL level. However, I can’t help but find they have several things in common. Physically, all the tools are there. It’s why they were drafted where they were. I liked the arm strength, the apparent ability to fit the ball in tight windows, the surprising mobility.

Also, they both come from spread offences with simple reads that have little to do with all they’ll be asked to do at the NFL level.

Moreover, there is, in the case of each one, something worrisome about their college resumé. Gabbert’s passing statistics were nothing to write home about, despite his playing in an offence that facilitated big numbers, while Trubisky has only started 13 college games.

Finally, their respective situation coming into the league is positively and similarly atrocious. Both desperately need their supposed number 1 receiver to come through. In Gabbert’s case, we already know that he didn’t, as Justin Blackmon chose to prioritize weed over playing football. And… Sorry, what’s that? … What do you mean, ‘Are you still bitter about this?’ Moving on, shall we?

In your case, you let Alshon Jeffery go in free agency. You drafted Kevin White two years ago but, unless he stays healthy and becomes what he supposed to be, you’ll give your new quarterback a supporting cast about as lackluster as the one Gabbert had in Jacksonville. Plus, if White has another season of quality time with your athletic therapists, you’ve now dealt away picks that would’ve been useful when it comes to surrounding Mitchy with some actual talent. At least, your offensive line is a bit better than the one Gabbert had in Jacksonville. Small victories, eh?

In other words, if you toss Trubisky in there after the first time Mike Glennon throws two picks, he won’t know what’s hit him, and you’ll feel the pain of his being a bust just like I’m still feeling each of the million sacks Gabbert took because he was afraid of throwing an interception.

So here I am, once again, making myself the bearer of bad news. I’m sorry about that. If it makes you feel any better, just remember that I’m just a bitter Jacksonville fan who’s trying to recover from the fact that Dalvin Cook, my favourite running back in the draft, the best running back in the draft, might be sitting there at 35 when my Jags pick in the second round, but that I won’t take him because I drafted Leonard Fournette yesterday despite having no O-Line to block for him.

Peace out, guys,

AT

 

NFL Combine: Death of the workout warrior?

Everyone over the age of 10 can still remember at least one. Older NFL fans can still recall the meteoric post-Combine rise of defensive end Mike Mamula. Younger fans were probably old enough to witness the preposterous overdrafting of wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey by the Raiders. Jets’ fans still weep as they reminisce the virtual invisibility of edge rusher Vernon Gholston. There have been countless others over the years, but all these draft prospects of yore have in common is that they have earned the unflattering label of the “workout warrior.”

At first, the expression appears to carry a positive connotation. Of course, for an NFL draft prospect, there is nothing intrinsically bad about the ability to run 40 yards in a straight line really quickly; or about the strength to bench press 225 pounds many, many consecutive times; or about looking chiseled out of stone like a Greek God. Several prospects, who’ll turn out to be really good NFL players, will check all those boxes. However, the label isn’t meant for workout beasts who can actually play.

The workout warrior tag is reserved for players whose college resume doesn’t warrant a top pick, but whose workout numbers, at the Combine or at their Pro Day, allow them to be drafted much higher than they should be, and whose lack of actual football skill torpedoes their NFL career once they reach the pros. Bonus points go to workout warriors whose pedestrian college production should have been a red flag for NFL talent evaluators (often how it goes, come to think of it).

The olden days of workout warrior glory

Mike Mamula was the original workout warrior. Originally projected to be drafted in the third round (which would have been consistent with what eventually was his level of play in the NFL) in 1995, the Boston College product decided, along with his agent, to train exclusively to ace the landmark Combine drills, such as the 40, the bench press, the T-Test and the vertical leap. His reasoning made sense: “If that’s what I’m going to be evaluated on, then that’s what I need to prepare for.” Mamula blew scouts away. Carrying a 6-4, 248-pound frame, he ran a 4.58 4o, bench-pressed 225 pounds 28 times, and had a vertical jump of 38,5 inches. The Philadelphia Eagles started a trend of drafting workout wonders, and selected Mamula seventh overall.

Soon after, however, the flaws in the Eagles’ thinking were on full display, and everyone remembered why Mamula was rated as a third-rounder before the combine. He was a highly productive player at Boston College, but he didn’t play as fast as he timed, and he was too far undersized to beat NFL tackles with power. (In those days, he was badly undersized as a defensive end, much worse than he would be now. Tackles were much heavier, and run games revolved mostly around man-blocking, which is, at its very nature, much more physical than the zone schemes that are the norm today.) Unlike many subsequent workout warriors, Mamula didn’t have a disastrous career. He was, by all accounts, a decent rotation defensive end. However, his Combine performance made several people think he was a franchise player at the position, and these same people were absolutely shocked when he failed to live up to expectations. Still, Mamula set a trend that would have fans trying to spot who the next one would be. He can be credited, if nothing else, for making the draft process more fun for draftniks. They justified their existence by unearthing late-round gems, and issuing stern warnings about the next Mamula.

When prepping for the draft as a fan, it was once part of the fun to hear of the unwarranted rise up draft boards of a “Combine star performer,” scream at your television set or at your computer and to have, with the talking head on the screen, a conversation such as this one:

– ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: This guy would have been lucky to make it into the first round before the Combine, but when he was in Indy, he checked all the boxes.

– Me: Blah, blah, blah…

– Kiper: He weighed in at 315, he ran 4.87, he had 30 reps at 225 pounds. Now, I’m hearing echoes of him being drafted in the Top 10.

– Me: Wha… What the hell?! Guy’s a stiff!!!

– Kiper: He now has scouts really high on his upside as a pass rusher…

– Me: So how come that “upside” never materialized in college, you dipshit?!

– Kiper: A scout that I talked to said this guy’s build and movement skills reminded him of Warren Sapp.

– Me: Blasphemy! In what universe?! Where did this guy get his crack pipe?! There aren’t enough ‘roids in the galaxy for him to get even a glimpse of Sapp!! Whoever drafts him that high is JUST MENTAL!!

Perhaps my father, my brother and my friend Gab Flewelling will have recognized me losing my cool after hearing “Kipe” sullying the great Warren Sapp’s name by putting it in the same sentence as that of Dewayne Robertson, a Kentucky defensive tackle drafted fourth overall by the Jets in 2003*. (Hmm… Them again… I sense a recurring theme, don’t you?) A year later, after a supremely underwhelming rookie season for the Jets’ second coming of Sapp, we were hearing ESPN’s football reporters, hoping any footage of them praising Robertson had been destroyed, telling us something like this, and prompting the following reaction from me:

– Reporter: Last year, the Jets tried to play Robertson as a three-technique to give him more pass rushing opportunities, but that doesn’t really suit his game. This year, they’ve moved him to a one-technique role, where he can do what he does best, which is soak up double-teams and stuff the run**…

– Me: SO WHO THE HELL IS BEING PAID TO DO THE SCOUTING AROUND THERE?!?! Me and my ZERO years of scouting experience could have told you Robertson is no 3-tech! Don’t you think this is the sort of thing a team would want to find out about BEFORE taking the guy at fourth overall?! Because you can bet that last slice of authentic New York pizza that the Jets never draft him fourth overall in a million years if they think he’s a one-tech! How about just watching the damn film?!

I know it doesn’t look like it, but those days were fun. You just had to look at 40 times to know which player would sucker a team into taking him far too early. You just hoped it wouldn’t be your team. Then, when they did, you hoped you were wrong about the guy. You usually weren’t. Back then, teams would make picks so reprehensibly dumb you’d feel really smart calling them out on it. Except when the Jags picked Matt Jones*** in the first round in 2005. Then I lost my shit.

Robertson selected fourth overall

Where have they gone?

So, a few days ago, “The Ringer NFL Show” hosts Robert Mays and Kevin Clark were having this debate about the significance of the Combine. The strongest stance came from Clark, who argued that there is no such thing as a workout warrior anymore. Teams, he suggested, should pick the guy who destroys Combine workouts because, he says, they’re better off grabbing the guys with upper-echelon athleticism and coaching them up to be competent NFL players.

His opinion is not completely without merit. The true workout warrior flops are indeed much rarer than they used to be. Workout freaks like Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney can really play. We do, indeed,see less of the Gholstons, the Robertsons, the Troy Williamsons, the Ashley Lelies, the Donte Stallworths as we did about 15 years ago.

So how did this happen? I can offer three ideas as to why we do not have the overdrafted workout warriors we once had.

The first reason is this: teams have gotten much smarter in how they interpret combine data.  We got a perfect illustration of this just last year. When he arrived at the Combine, Chargers’ defensive end Joey Bosa was considered the 2016 Draft’s premier defensive line prospect. Scouts Inc.’s Todd McShay even had Bosa ranked as the draft’s top prospect. Then, Bosa ran a pedestrian 4.86 40-yard dash. 15 years ago, Bosa’s subpar 40 would probably have sent him spiraling down to the 20s. Instead, because this was 2016, the Chargers didn’t panic. They went back to the tape and likely said to themselves, “who cares about what he ran? We don’t see 4.86 on tape.” Bosa went on to win the Rookie of the Year award and to record 10.5 sacks despite missing significant time. This is a powerful and essential message, and it’s why even the Browns are unlikely to be stupid enough to let themselves be scared off the draft’s top prospect, Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett, if he runs 4.72 instead of 4.55.

So when Clark says tape is more misleading than Combine results because it can mask the fact that a dominant college player might not be athletic enough to play in the NFL, he’s right to point out that this danger exists. This is why the Combine’s physical tests are not a complete waste of time. A cornerback who runs a 4.6 40 probably can’t hang with AJ Green or Julio Jones in man coverage. But whereas Combine results were once the be-all and end-all of player evaluation, despite GMs claim to the contrary, they now serve as a means of confirming what the tape shows about a prospect. This is, by any standard, a much more sensible way to use Combine data.

Thus, is Clark right to suggest that the Workout Warriors as we knew them are a thing of the past? In short, no. The second reason why they seem less numerous than they once were is this: Given that teams do a much better and complete job of figuring out a given prospect’s true abilities, they are far less likely to spend high draft picks on old-school Workout Warriors. Let nobody doubt it: the higher the draft pick, the higher the expectations. Ergo, a high draft choice will always get more chances to justify his draft status than a low-round pick will get to outplay his. If an old-fashioned workout warrior were to be drafted in the third or fourth round, nobody would make much of a fuss about the fact that he can’t play. These are the rounds that recent 40-time dynamos such as Kenyan Drake, Dri Archer, Cardale Jones or Clive Walford (all players whose testing numbers were better than their college careers) now occupy. Different expectations mean a different perspective on a player’s career. Imagine if Dewayne Robertson or Johnathan Sullivan had been drafted in the third round. Most likely, their respective teams don’t try to wedge them into playmaker roles they aren’t suited for, they slowly work their way into being perfectly suitable rotation players, and never do they become the laughing stocks they are now.

This leads me to the third reason: As teams get better at evaluating prospects, agents and college coaches come to realize it. Coaches can now spend three or four years telling players that, if they can’t play, that fancy 40 time will do them very little good. And agents, most of whom send their clients to high-priced training compounds during the Combine preparation period, have started sending them to places where the football skill-to-track technique ratio is more favourable to the former than it would previously have been. This becomes a must when positional drills become as scrutinized as the 40 time. It also has made players better because they spend the better part of three months, if not more, working on skills they’ll actually use beyond the Combine.

It begins

In my opinion, Workout Warriors have not disappeared. Rather, as teams have refined their evaluation methods, these testing freaks who can’t play now get exposed as such before, as opposed to after, they hit the field for the NFL team that drafts them. They are usually drafted lower, and have infinitely less significant expectations placed on them. Yet, the Workout Warriors will never be completely purged. If Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer, who has not in any way shown he’s ready for the NFL, gets drafted in the first round, it’ll be because of his Combine workouts (he’s already said to have impressed new 49ers’ GM John Lynch). If USC’s Adoree Jackson is picked in the first round by a team that thinks it’s getting a true starting cornerback, it’ll happen because his athleticism (read 40 time) was “too much to pass up.” If Miami (FL) tight end David Njoku is picked before Alabama’s OJ Howard, you can bet your last dollar Combine numbers will have something to do with it.

Whatever happens ends up happening, however, it’ll be a blast to watch it unfold, as it always is. Good news, draftniks: our second round of Holidays is upon us. Draft season is here. Enjoy it! I know I will.

 

* That year, Robertson was part of a defensive tackle class that was meant to be one of the greatest in NFL Draft history. The group became something of a disappointment. Robertson, who was a huge bust at fourth overall, was followed off the board two picks later by an even more egregious workout warrior of a defensive tackle, Georgia’s Johnathan Sullivan (6-3, 313 lbs, 33 reps, 4.81 40-yard dash, and just could…not…play… for shit!). Also disappointing were Penn State’s Jimmy Kennedy (bounced around the league as a rotation player after going 12th overall to the Rams), and Miami (FL)’s William Joseph (a mortally inconsistent player who is now in prison for an identity theft tax return fraud scheme). This doesn’t, for a single second, excuse the Jets for taking Robertson and the Saints for (trading up and) taking Sullivan. The Saints could have drafted Pro Bowl cornerback Marcus Trufant, whom they desperately needed (yup, even then, they were incompetent in the secondary). Meanwhile, the Jets could have gone for Oklahoma State DT Kevin Williams (ninth overall to the Vikings, and one of the five best DTs of the past 15 years) or for Texas A&M’s Ty Warren (who tormented the Jets while playing for the Patriots). And if pass rush is what they wanted, well, a no-name guy by the name of Terrell Suggs, who had run a pedestrian 4.77 40-time, was picked at #10 by the Ravens (of course). Meanwhile, the Jets decided, three years later, that they needed a franchise pass rusher and picked Vernon Gholston with the sixth selection. But, hey, Suggs ran a bad 40, so what the hell… He’s only going to be a Hall-of-Famer. Sometimes, cheering for the Jets truly is the suckiest gig in all of fandom. Oh, and by the way, since we’re laughing at bad organizations, back in 2003, the Cardinals, who needed a pass rusher in the absolute worst way, traded down from sixth overall where they could have had local guy Suggs (from Arizona State; coming off an NCAA record 24-sack season… Who the hell wants that?!), and wound up picking two workout warriors in edge rusher Calvin Pace (decent career, but not with the Cards) and wide receiver Bryant Johnson (slow as molasses on the field and couldn’t separate, but ran 4.37 at his Pro Day, predictably went back to the whole no-separating deal in the NFL)

** Turns out, Robertson couldn’t even do that in the NFL. 

*** Jones played quarterback at Arkansas, but was a really sporadic thrower who did most of his damage with his legs, so he moved to receiver in the NFL. Ergo, the average fan and the competent team might (rightly) deem it risky to spend a first-round pick on a guy who’s switching positions upon arriving in the league. But, hey, leave it to the Jags to be completely hooked at the sight of 6-6, 242 lbs, a 4.37 in the 40 and ONE crazy one-handed grab during the one-on-ones at the Senior Bowl practices. 

 

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