The First Round Mock Draft

So, the draft is today. And since I turned the intro to my mock draft into a separate article, I’m not making you wait any longer, so here goes.

1. Los Angeles Rams (from Tennessee): Jared Goff, Quarterback, California:  I won’t be shocked if the Rams go Carson Wentz, but everything coming out of L.A. points to Goff, who is considered the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft. What tips the scales in Goff’s favour for me is the fact that Rams’ head coach Jeff Fisher and GM Les Snead are fighting for their jobs and need to win now.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (From Cleveland): Carson Wentz, Quarterback, North Dakota State: Philadelphia has made no secret that it wants whichever quarterback the Rams don’t pick, so Wentz falls to them here. There is no way the Eagles don’t go quarterback here, even though they have the Sam Bradford saga to begin with.

3. San Diego Chargers: Laremy Tunsil, Offensive Tackle, Ole Miss: This has turned into the draft’s pivotal pick. The Chargers are believed to be looking at Tunsil and FSU’s Jalen Ramsey. We’re also starting to hear the name “DeForest Buckner” lately, which leads me to think smokescreen. I think they go for the franchise left tackle.

4. Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Ramsey, Defensive Back, Florida State: Without a quarterback to tempt them, the Cowboys get back to noticing they have an atrocious defensive backfield. Ramsey can act as an eraser in the secondary who can shift around between corner, nickel and free safey depending on the week. The Cowboys need an edge rusher, but the guy worth picking here is Ramsey.

5. Miami Dolphins (From Jacksonville): Ezekiel Elliott, Running Back, Ohio State: Word on the street is the Dolphins are looking to move up to get Elliott ahead of other teams who might want him. With Jalen Ramsey gone, there is no one Jacksonville really wants who is worth taking here. Therefore, the trade happens. Elliott is one of the rare running back worth taking so high, and he instantly upgrades the position for a team that lost Lamar Miller and missed out on CJ Anderson.

6. Baltimore Ravens: DeForest Buckner, Defensive End, Oregon: The Ravens may be tempted by Ronnie Stanley and Joey Bosa. Compared to these two, though, Buckner is a bigger need than Stanley (Eugene Monroe starting at left tackle is not a liability) and a better system fit than Bosa. Baltimore is the ultimate “Best Player Available” team, so who the hell knows, but Buckner figures to be really close to the top of their board, and he fills a huge need.

7. San Francisco 49ers: Myles Jack, Linebacker, UCLA: Yes, I know the 49ers have been burned by health concern linebackers. However, the Niners also know that when they were dominant defensively, it started with the inside duo of Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman. Right now, Gerald Hodges is slated to start next to Bowman. San Fran knows that a healthy Jack is one of the five best players in the draft, and new coach Chip Kelly takes a chance on him here.

8. New Orleans Saints (From Cleveland through Philadelphia and Miami): Joey Bosa, Defensive End, Ohio State: So Cleveland is in asset-stockpiling mode, and the Saints need a quality end to put opposite the excellent Cameron Jordan. New Orleans knows that Tampa Bay needs a quality edge rusher, so they use the fact Cleveland doesn’t need any of the top guys who are available here to come up and grab Bosa, who not only helps in terms of production but also in terms of leadership.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ronnie Stanley, Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame: With Joey Bosa gone, the Bucs reinforce their offensive line. Donovan Smith was a pleasant surprise last season, but he’s still better suited for the right side. Stanley provides true left-tackle-quality protection for second-year QB Jameis Winston.

10. New York Giants: Leonard Floyd, Edge Rusher, Georgia: OK, I’m not gonna lie… This is one where I’m allowing the media to influence me. I’ve been hearing Floyd to the Giants if he’s still there for the past week or so. This pick makes absolutely no sense to me. Right now, Floyd is an overrated project type of player who reminds me of Dion Jordan, who is warming up the bench in Miami after being picked third overall. I know his athleticism is enticing, but his lack of production really worries me. The question of system also comes to the mind, as Floyd is a quintessential 3-4 linebacker. This might be the draft’s best smokescreen, but if Floyd does go to the Giants, it’s a major risk.

11. Chicago Bears: Jack Conklin, Offensive Tackle, Michigan State: The Bears’ roster is really bereft of talent in many places. Among the Bears’ many needs is the left tackle position, following the release of Jermon Bushrod. Thus, the Bears could go in a number of directions, but at this point, Conklin is the best player who fills a need for Chicago, and he fits the Bears’ mentality.

12. Cleveland Browns (From New Orleans): Jarran Reed, Defensive Lineman, Alabama: Last year’s first-round pick, nose tackle Danny Shelton, was not enough on his own to paper over the cracks of Cleveland’s run defence. In a division where everyone can run the ball, Reed is added to one of the end spots and gives the Browns another run-stuffing lineman.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (From Miami through Philadelphia): Vernon Hargreaves III, Cornerback, Florida: The Jags are ecstatic to find a cornerback who can, at worst, give them some kind of depth in the secondary. More likely, Hargreaves is a factor as a starter or as a nickel. For a team whose secondary was a dumpster fire a year ago, this is a terrific catch.

14. Oakland Raiders: Reggie Ragland, Linebacker, Alabama: The Raiders continue to add quality pieces to their defence, this time reinforcing the inside linebacker position. They will give Darron Lee and his athleticism some thought, but the hard-nosed Ragland is another player who fits the Raider mentality, and who fills Oakland’s need for an in-the-box player.

15. Tennessee Titans (From Los Angeles): Taylor Decker, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State: All mock drafts before the Titans traded down to this point had them taking Laremy Tunsil. Thing is, the Titans need more help at right tackle than left, so they’re elated to see Decker drop to them. Pencil him in there at right tackle for the foreseeable future.

16. Detroit Lions: Sheldon Rankins, Defensive Tackle, Louisville: The Lions love upfield rushers, and while Haloti Ngata claims to enjoy the role, he’s not a natural for it. Moreover, since losing Ndamokung Suh, the Lions don’t have a true interior pass rusher. Rankins, an explosive player in the mold of Geno Atkins, fits the bill.

17. Atlanta Falcons: A’Shawn Robinson, Defensive Tackle, Alabama: The Falcons could use help at linebacker, but Robinson helps them a great deal because he can either line up on the nose, or at the two-gapping weakside end position in the Falcons’ Seattle-inspired defence. Wherever he plays, he helps with the Falcons’ run defence.

18. Indianapolis Colts: Noah Spence, Edge Rusher, Eastern Kentucky: Someone is going to take a stab at Spence, a talented player with significant character concerns. In the end, though, Spence is the draft’s only true blue-chip edge rusher, and that’ll make him too tempting for Indy to pass up.

19. Buffalo Bills: Shaq Lawson, Defensive End, Clemson: After losing Mario Williams, the Bills need to replace the pass rush he gave them before he spent last season looking uninterested. Buffalo will 100% have a discussion about taking Paxton Lynch here, but in the end, they go with the more immediate need, and with the player who has a much higher floor in Lawson.

20. New York Jets: Paxton Lynch, Quarterback, Memphis: Is anything the Jets do these days NOT a tactic to pressure Ryan Fitzpatrick into signing at a discount? Even if Fitzpatrick returns, he is not a long-term solution. However, the Jets could use him while they groom Lynch, who has much to learn in order to be a functional pro quarterback. Besides, when he does mature, he can allow the Jets to avoid the struggles typically experienced by teams who throw a rookie quarterback to the lions.

21. Washington: Darron Lee, Linebacker, Ohio State: Washington can’t quite believe Lee has made it this far, but they won’t complain. Their inside linebacker group could use his athleticism, and he figures to become one of the leaders of a unit severely lacking in star power.

22. Houston Texans: Corey Coleman, Wide Receiver, Baylor: The Texans are crying for a receiver to help out All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins. Coleman runs a very limited arsenal of routes, but has blazing speed, a trait that complements Hopkins’ all-around game. Brock Osweiler will love having the speedy Coleman in Houston.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Josh Doctson, Wide Receiver, TCU: Receiver is one of the rare holes on the Vikes’ roster, and while they may hesitate between Doctson and Laquon Treadwell, they end up going with the TCU product because he posted better timed speed than Treadwell, and he’s the best receiver in the draft at pulling down jump balls.

24. Cincinnati Bengals: Laquon Treadwell, Wide Receiver, Ole Miss: This is a dream come true for Cincinnati. A receiver of Treadwell’s quality will benefit from AJ Green’s defence-stretching ability, and will work his magic on short-to-intermediate routes, which is what he’s best suited for anyway. Treadwell is the perfect complement to Green home run ability, and will be a far superior second option to Marvin Jones or Mohammed Sanu.

25. Pittsburgh Steelers: Eli Apple, Cornerback, Ohio State: This is just a Steelers kind of pick, isn’t it? Apple fits the rugged Pittsburgh mold of defensive back, and since Pittsburgh now plays much more Cover 2 than they did under Dick Lebeau, Apple’s tendency to give up the occasional big play figures to be hidden better than it was at Ohio State.

26. Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Kelly, Centre, Alabama: If Seattle wants Russell Wilson to play longer than six years, they are going to have to start taking better care of him. Before last season, the Hawks dealt star centre Max Unger to the Saints, and their offensive line never really recovered. This pick is a great opportunity to start fixing a problem they have been neglecting for some time.

27. Green Bay Packers: Vernon Butler, Nose Tackle, Louisiana Tech: It seems the Packers are drafting a D-Lineman every year. BJ Raji’s departure leaves them extremely thin at the nose tackle position, and the help Butler can bring is sizable in every sense of the word.

28. Kansas City Chiefs: William Jackson III, cornerback, Houston: After losing Sean Smith to divisional rival Oakland, the Chiefs pick Jackson to give themselves a top pair of young cornerbacks along with last year’s outstanding rookie Marcus Peters. Throwing against KC figures to be mighty inconvenient.

29. Dallas Cowboys (From Arizona): Kevin Dodd, Defensive End, Clemson: With no one they especially like here, the Cardinals trade back to the early second round, thus enabling Dallas to come up and grab the pass rusher they decided to skip at #4 when they picked Jalen Ramsey over Joey Bosa. Hopefully for the Cowboys, they don’t have to give up too much.

30. Carolina Panthers: Will Fuller, Wide Receiver, Notre Dame: Sure, he’s a bit of a one-trick pony. Sure, he’s very reminiscent of Ted Ginn in that his deep speed is about his only calling card. But he’s the top player on Carolina’s board at this point, and the Panthers would do well to remember that their receiver group overachieved last year. It can’t hurt not to go all-in on it happening again. Cam Newton can certainly benefit from having a new weapon to work with.

31. Denver Broncos: Andrew Billings, Nose tackle, Baylor: As critically-acclaimed as that Denver front was last season, it was bereft of a true nose tackle. Billings still being there at 31 is the ideal opportunity add such a player to the roster. Billings, a powerful player who can get off the ball and push the pocket, can serve as a setup man for Wade Phillips to run his crazy blitzes and twists.

The Joey Bosa problem

If you are an NCAA football player and college ball commentators talk about you before the season as a “lock for the first overall pick in next year’s draft,” start freaking out. Your stock will drop soon.

Look it up; for every Andrew Luck or Jadaveon Clowney, there are several “mortal locks” like Matt Leinart, Jake Locker, Brady Quinn or Ricky Williams. All of them were crowned “next year’s first overall pick,” and subsequently tumbled down in the first round to varying degrees (Locker, Williams, and Leinart were still Top 10 picks, but only Williams went in the Top 5); Quinn dropped much further, though not far enough). This year’s draft figures to add another name to this unenviable list: Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa.

As a sophomore on OSU’s 2014-15 National Championship team, Bosa forced the entire college football fanbase to notice him: he won the Big 10’s Defensive Player of the Year award with his 21 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks. Therefore, it was clear to college football analysts that there was no better player for this year’s draft.

That said, we’ve heard the song before, and the CFB gang often gets it wrong, mostly because they look at these players from a college football perspective. They don’t pick players apart the way NFL scouts and coaches do, they seldom engage in trying to look for ways in which these players can transcend a completely different system from what they’ll see in the pros, and they certainly don’t analyse them in terms of NFL team fits (how could they?). This explains why, on the topic of predicting draft spots a year early, you shouldn’t trust them.

Now, sometimes a player is so clearly superior to the rest of the draft class that everybody agrees on it. The only reason why, for example, Julius Peppers wasn’t the first overall pick in 2002 was because the NFL was welcoming the expansion Texans. Houston, being the bright sparks that they were, decided that they absolutely HAD to throw a rookie quarterback behind a bad offensive line instead of going for the best college pass rusher of the last decade.

Players like Peppers are the exception, however, and most of the time, the attentive viewer can start to see signs that their favourite college ball analysts might be off the mark with the first overall pick predictions. For some people who looked at Bosa, the first sign was the drop in sack production: Bosa went from 13.5 sacks in 2014 to five in 2015. His defenders will argue that the lesser sack numbers were the result of double and triple-teams, and that his numbers against the run (16 tackles for loss) were again excellent. Bosa’s doubters, meanwhile, will argue that a sign of a true future NFL star is the ability to keep posting great numbers despite the extra attention.

As luck would have it, both sides have a point. When a player has a ridiculous freshman or sophomore season rushing the passer, one has to expect his sack numbers to drop somewhat the next year. If we stick with the Peppers example, it was unrealistic to expect him to match the 15 sacks he had as a sophomore at North Carolina, but the 9.5 he notched as a junior despite constantly dealing with multiple blockers was considered, for good reason, to be an acceptable drop in production. Bosa’s dip to five sacks is more worrisome, but it doesn’t prove he lacks what it takes to be a productive pass rusher in the NFL.

Recently, however, another issue has come up: Bosa lack of prototypical initial quickness. In other words, the ability to beat blockers off the snap with his first step doesn’t show up on tape. This is a potential issue that has struck me all year long. Even when facing tackles alone (an admittedly rare occurrence), Bosa appears to have neither the elite first step of the usual top-level NFL pass rushers nor the burst to turn the corner on NFL offensive tackles using speed. Scouts and coaches are now much smarter in how they interpret testing results, so Bosa’s 4.86 40-time at the Combine didn’t result in the catastrophic draft plunge that would have been a certainty 12-15 years ago. It did, however, lend credence to the idea that Bosa doesn’t have the explosion to be a classic speed rusher in the NFL. And while he did post a better 40-time at his pro day (4.77), the improvement doesn’t seem like enough to change many people’s minds on the topic.

ESPN’s Todd McShay has suggested that this doesn’t really matter; that being a top pass rusher in the NFL is more about hands and technique than about raw speed or athleticism. He’s both right and wrong. It’s true one doesn’t have to be uber-athletic to be a solid-to-good NFL edge rusher. That said, if you’re looking for a bona-fide franchise pass rusher, statistics suggest Bosa won’t be that player.

Indeed, if we recall that we are looking for either a killer first step or great speed turning the corner, the NFL’s active-sack-leaders list contradicts McShay’s assertion. The first eight players possess at least one, if not both those qualities, and there is a speed rush element to each one’s game. (The list from one to eight: Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, DeMarcus Ware, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, and Mario Williams.)

You have to get to Trent Cole at number nine on the list to find a player who made his mark essentially off technique and motor, and even that’s debatable. Cole isn’t a fast runner, but his first step is excellent nonetheless. Now, Bosa’s backers might respond that he could do worse than Trent Cole’s career as a pass rusher, and that sacks aren’t the be-all and end-all of the impact of one’s pass rush. Both points are valid, but while Trent Cole has been a very good player for the bulk of his career, would you, at any point, have described him as an elite pass rusher? I cannot say I would have. And on the topic of meaningful pass rush stats, sacks aren’t everything, it’s true. Yet, they are very significant in that they, more often than not, kill offensive drives.

Before we go any further, though, we must remember not to sell Bosa short. All the TV and magazine scouts are both unanimous and right in the following respect: Bosa’s pass rush arsenal and overall technique are both uncommonly polished for a college player, and his hands are among the most violent I can recall seeing on someone entering the NFL. Bosa is also a powerful player who should quickly become one of the NFL’s best defensive ends at defending the run.

But then, the same could be said about a similar prospect who came out in 2008: Chris Long. The son of the great Howie Long hasn’t embarrassed himself by any means in the NFL, but while his technique is just about spotless, his lack of elite athleticism has prevented him from reaching the pass rushing heights of his technically inferior but athletically superior former teammate Robert Quinn. Now ask yourself the following question: if the Rams knew Long’s career numbers in advance and were then transported back to the ’08 draft, do they draft Long second overall again? I can almost guarantee they don’t. And here’s an even more intriguing inquiry: if the entire NFL knows Long’s career numbers during the draft process, where DOES he get drafted?

The thing about having a Top-5 pick is that you’re hoping to come away with a Top three, maybe four, player at his position (unless he’s a quarterback, in which case he can be average and still be a mortal lock for a $100-million contract, but I digress). And if you’re looking for a pass rusher, that’s a 12-or-more sacks-per-year guy. The odds are that Bosa will be something close to that, but not quite.

So while Bosa’s floor is so unusually high that he’s probably the draft’s unlikeliest player to become a bust, his lack of a “sky is the limit” kind of ceiling will likely make him something of a tough sell in the Top 5. You can just picture several heated conversations about him between coaches and scouts. Do you allow the multi-dimensional quality of his game to overshadow his limitations when it comes to his most important task? Do you believe his technique, hand violence, and effort can compensate for his lack of raw speed and overall athleticism? If you’re picking him in the Top 5, maybe even the Top 10, you have to answer yes to both of these questions. Would I? I’m really not certain. And while it only takes the one to pull the trigger, one has to think several teams aren’t sure, either. I’m glad it’s not my call.

 

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